Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -1200 FIU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +33 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -25.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -24.7 (+8.3) | 151.0 (+30.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -22.9 (+10.1) | 150.7 (+30.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -19.8 (+13.2) | 149.9 (+31.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#22) | -5.4 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#99) | 0.40 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#96) | 0.53 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#146) | 0.500 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 29.6% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 6.2% |
Game Analysis
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