Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -138 BUCK +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -1.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.8 (+9.2) | 138.2 (+14.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -0.2 (+11.2) | 137.6 (+15.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -1.6 (+12.6) | 132.2 (+20.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | SPU 67 – 58 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#304) | 1.7 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#192) | 0.39 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#223) | 0.56 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#200) | 0.500 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 23.9% | 46.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.6% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 46.9% | 8.2% |
Game Analysis
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