Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -700 ALCN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +9 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -7.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -10.1 (-19.1) | 142.4 (-13.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.4 (-16.4) | 137.1 (-8.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.3 (-16.3) | 142.7 (-13.7) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#97) | 6.2 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#136) | 1.85 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#130) | 2.89 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#146) | 0.863 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 50.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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