Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | HOW +650 JMU -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +26 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -13.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -9.8 (-16.2) | 158.7 (+5.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -12.3 (-13.7) | 158.1 (+5.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -12.2 (-13.8) | 157.3 (+6.7) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2023 | JMU 107 – 86 HOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#223) | 21.9 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#266) | 2.69 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#255) | 4.02 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#263) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 56.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 47.4% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 45.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 63.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 42.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 38.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.5% | 37.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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