Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | URI -700 STBK +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | URI -13.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -5.6 (+4.4) | 129.3 (+8.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -5.8 (+4.2) | 131.3 (+6.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -4.8 (+5.2) | 128.9 (+9.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#325) | -11.8 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#354) | -1.03 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.74 (#356) | -1.66 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.264 (#300) | 0.250 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 30.8% |
| 3PT% | 13.6% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.9% | 36.5% |
| TOV% | 28.2% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 12.8% |
| FT Rate | 43.3% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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