Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +21 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | OU -6.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -6.3 (+14.7) | 126.2 (+0.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -7.7 (+13.3) | 124.4 (+2.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -5.8 (+15.2) | 125.7 (+1.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#268) | -0.5 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#321) | -0.31 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#299) | -0.39 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.263 (#301) | 0.750 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 29.3% |
| 3PT% | 24.2% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 32.8% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 13.1% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 37.1% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.8% | 47.9% |
Game Analysis
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