Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -275 SBU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -7.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -3.9 (+0.1) | 144.1 (-16.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -3.7 (+0.3) | 144.0 (-16.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -4.8 (-0.8) | 144.2 (-16.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#55) | -0.6 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#31) | -1.10 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#18) | -1.78 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#94) | 0.344 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 3.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 10.9% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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