Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -2500 FAIR +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -16.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -18.3 (-5.3) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -14.5 (-1.5) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -14.8 (-1.8) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#79) | -1.3 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#115) | -0.67 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#109) | -0.88 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#206) | 0.562 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 46.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 44.9% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 36.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 43.4% |
Game Analysis
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