Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MD -2500 BING +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +24 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MD -11.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -16.6 (+7.4) | 136.4 (-8.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -9.5 (+14.5) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -10.1 (+13.9) | 140.4 (-12.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#82) | 3.6 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#116) | 2.18 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#112) | 2.92 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#206) | 0.750 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 43.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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