Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -105 CAL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -7.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -1.1 (+0.9) | 127.9 (-1.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -3.9 (-1.9) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -3.5 (-1.5) | 133.2 (-7.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -5.7 (-3.7) | 127.6 (-1.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | CAL 71 – 67 UCSD |
| Nov 9, 2021 | UCSD 80 – 67 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 4-10 | 3-14 |
| Away | 6-9 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L16 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 58.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#341) | -9.0 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#343) | -3.26 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.36 (#343) | -4.89 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#217) | 0.250 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 19.4% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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