Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Haas Pavilion · December 20, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread CAL -9.0 Away covered
O/U 145.0 Under
Money CAL -385 / UCSD +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual CAL +4 138 Won
Massey CAL -0.9 (+3.1) — —
Massey Totals — 148.4 (-10.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 48% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 52% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ CAL -1.5 (+2.5) 146.2 (-8.2) 59% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML CAL -1.8 (+2.2) 143.0 (-5.0) 57% ✓
Baseline ML CAL -2.0 (+2.0) 144.9 (-6.9) 55% ✓
Baseline Plus ML CAL -1.4 (+2.6) 144.4 (-6.4) 53% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 16, 2022 UCSD 64 – 62 CAL
Nov 9, 2021 UCSD 80 – 67 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL UCSD
Overall 13-19 21-12
Conference 9-11 15-5
Home 10-6 14-2
Away 3-8 7-7
Neutral 0-5 0-3
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 74.0 74.7
Avg Pts Against 77.0 69.9
Massey -1.8 (#199) 1.9 (#142)
Bradley-Terry -1.51 (#296) -0.51 (#228)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.45 (#275) -0.48 (#213)
RPI 0.446 (#265) 0.456 (#251)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL UCSD
FG% 43.6% 42.9%
3PT% 33.8% 31.2%
REB / G 38.4 33.0
OREB / G 12.8 9.4
AST / TO 0.80 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 49.3%
TOV% 19.3% 14.8%
ORB% 36.1% 27.2%
FT Rate 23.2% 21.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 47.3%
Opp TOV% 14.7% 17.8%
DRB% 74.0% 65.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.5% 20.1%

Game Analysis

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