Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | CAL -385 UCSD +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -0.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.5 (+2.5) | 146.2 (-8.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -1.8 (+2.2) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -2.0 (+2.0) | 144.9 (-6.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -1.4 (+2.6) | 144.4 (-6.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2022 | UCSD 64 – 62 CAL |
| Nov 9, 2021 | UCSD 80 – 67 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#199) | 1.9 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#296) | -0.51 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#275) | -0.48 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#265) | 0.456 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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