Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UND +260 PAC -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +30 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -4.5 (-34.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -1.2 (-28.8) | 150.7 (+5.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -2.3 (-32.3) | 155.3 (+0.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UND -2.9 (-32.9) | 152.3 (+3.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.9 (-30.9) | 149.6 (+6.4) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2023 | UND 73 – 71 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#233) | 3.2 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#62) | 0.69 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#66) | 0.74 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#110) | 0.383 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 62.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 54.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.3% | 39.6% |
Game Analysis
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