Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MSU +225 UK -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UK -8.1 (+17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+39.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.2 (+13.2) | 135.7 (+27.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.3 (+13.3) | 136.2 (+26.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -4.7 (+13.7) | 132.5 (+30.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.5 (+14.5) | 130.5 (+32.5) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | MSU 83 – 66 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#72) | 13.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#254) | 0.87 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#201) | 1.34 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#244) | 0.604 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 51.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 37.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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