Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UK -175 MSU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +17 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -16.6 (-33.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -8.4 (-25.4) | 144.3 (+4.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -8.6 (-25.6) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -9.6 (-26.6) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -10.3 (-27.3) | 145.2 (+3.8) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2022 | MSU 86 – 77 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#4) | 2.9 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#119) | 1.51 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#117) | 1.94 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#88) | 0.641 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 21.7% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 45.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 45.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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