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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–19 on winners
spread MAE 7.1
55 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.1 | 126.6 | 51% | 84–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.1 | 142.4 | 38% | 70–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 147.8 | 80% | 102–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 147.3 | 57% | 76–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.5 | 142.9 | 72% | 77–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 155.8 | 59% | 95–92 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.1 | 139.5 | 29% | 65–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.2 | 142.7 | 15% | 71–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.6 | 150.1 | 24% | 94–95 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 142.9 | 58% | 60–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 154.9 | 88% | 70–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 143.6 | 84% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 147.5 | 25% | 80–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 142.4 | 76% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 152.1 | 44% | 62–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.4 | 134.5 | 87% | 54–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.5 | 144.6 | 87% | 77–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 153.0 | 60% | 71–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 166.0 | 54% | 75–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 154.4 | 56% | 74–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.5 | 142.7 | 91% | 62–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 149.1 | 37% | 73–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 154.7 | 29% | 78–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 139.7 | 73% | 63–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 154.4 | 34% | 88–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 147.7 | 58% | 72–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 145.7 | 34% | 77–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.7 | 151.4 | 29% | 94–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 141.3 | 82% | 59–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 144.9 | 68% | 75–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 139.3 | 65% | 71–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 157.6 | 44% | 86–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 143.4 | 19% | 83–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 151.0 | 45% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 138.3 | 42% | 75–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 147.0 | 73% | 78–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 135.4 | 60% | 72–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 147.3 | 40% | 67–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 128.8 | 42% | 62–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 147.2 | 84% | 60–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 137.4 | 78% | 86–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 145.7 | 64% | 70–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 141.9 | 82% | 63–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 145.5 | 73% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 144.1 | 75% | 85–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.3 | 149.8 | 66% | 58–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 145.1 | 65% | 81–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.4 | 152.7 | 54% | 92–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 136.5 | 63% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 134.3 | 80% | 47–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 130.8 | 39% | 62–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 155.4 | 76% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 142.7 | 58% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.3 | 153.4 | 90% | 74–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 139.4 | 56% | 72–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.