Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -455 PEPP +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -8.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -8.7 (+1.3) | 143.5 (+12.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ORST -9.5 (+0.5) | 143.6 (+12.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ORST -8.7 (+1.3) | 142.5 (+13.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -8.2 (+1.8) | 144.4 (+11.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2025 | PEPP 77 – 73 ORST |
| Feb 21, 2025 | ORST 84 – 78 PEPP |
| Jan 24, 2025 | ORST 83 – 63 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#183) | -6.9 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#149) | -1.25 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#150) | -1.44 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#150) | 0.435 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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