Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +440 TXSO -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -12.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -11.5 (+12.5) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -10.2 (+11.2) | 142.7 (+0.3) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -11.6 (+12.6) | 141.1 (+1.9) | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -11.6 (+12.6) | 141.9 (+1.1) | 13% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | TXSO 84 – 51 MVSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 38 MVSU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | TXSO 82 – 53 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | TXSO 73 – 52 MVSU |
| Jan 15, 2024 | TXSO 93 – 61 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-30 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 2-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-18 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -26.6 (#365) | -10.8 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.26 (#365) | -1.38 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.83 (#365) | -1.90 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.325 (#365) | 0.445 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.8% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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