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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
45–7 on winners
spread MAE 6.3
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+14.0 | 155.1 | 87% | 76–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 142.4 | 78% | 86–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.1 | 142.2 | 87% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.3 | 159.4 | 90% | 66–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 143.1 | 49% | 63–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 154.9 | 61% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 155.7 | 69% | 71–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 147.7 | 64% | 60–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 137.9 | 86% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 147.1 | 40% | 85–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 134.2 | 75% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 142.5 | 76% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 143.4 | 34% | 70–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 144.2 | 82% | 73–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 134.3 | 69% | 68–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.2 | 152.1 | 79% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 145.1 | 86% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 145.9 | 85% | 61–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 163.8 | 47% | 86–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 142.0 | 42% | 70–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.3 | 144.7 | 20% | 90–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 142.4 | 88% | 42–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 142.3 | 77% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 145.1 | 42% | 74–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.3 | 146.9 | 88% | 72–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 142.3 | 69% | 57–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 139.1 | 25% | 59–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.9 | 130.0 | 13% | 65–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 145.0 | 50% | 74–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.2 | 147.1 | 90% | 60–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 163.5 | 83% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 148.0 | 72% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 131.1 | 20% | 59–54 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 144.3 | 28% | 88–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.2 | 144.1 | 19% | 83–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 150.7 | 27% | 76–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 158.8 | 40% | 83–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 153.6 | 86% | 66–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 133.0 | 66% | 83–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.1 | 144.1 | 84% | 60–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 148.5 | 24% | 76–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.2 | 146.5 | 89% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 146.4 | 66% | 81–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 152.6 | 33% | 91–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 144.3 | 65% | 65–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 151.3 | 38% | 87–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.6 | 154.7 | 28% | 81–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 141.2 | 58% | 74–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 159.2 | 38% | 79–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 155.1 | 38% | 78–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.1 | 154.2 | 18% | 95–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 147.7 | 28% | 82–68 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.