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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–18 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
48 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+20.9 | 148.8 | 91% | 62–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 142.3 | 44% | 71–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 146.5 | 61% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 137.6 | 77% | 57–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 131.6 | 50% | 70–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 137.3 | 83% | 70–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 149.3 | 67% | 76–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 148.6 | 54% | 75–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 139.6 | 65% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 159.0 | 68% | 84–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 135.7 | 61% | 67–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 141.2 | 59% | 91–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 136.0 | 62% | 65–50 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 150.6 | 56% | 85–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.5 | 160.8 | 88% | 88–109 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 153.3 | 29% | 84–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 137.4 | 55% | 63–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-14.7 | 146.0 | 14% | 76–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 144.9 | 67% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.6 | 147.0 | 69% | 57–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 148.3 | 50% | 82–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 138.3 | 81% | 74–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 141.1 | 76% | 71–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 137.8 | 63% | 58–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 146.7 | 40% | 77–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 132.2 | 65% | 50–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 136.5 | 24% | 70–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 132.6 | 86% | 74–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.2 | 154.9 | 49% | 73–98 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.8 | 130.5 | 87% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-16.7 | 150.4 | 11% | 82–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 142.4 | 88% | 72–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 130.4 | 85% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 144.1 | 83% | 56–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.5 | 156.9 | 15% | 83–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 142.6 | 22% | 68–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 135.0 | 79% | 63–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 130.4 | 62% | 80–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 149.1 | 74% | 64–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 139.2 | 84% | 46–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 147.0 | 79% | 52–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.5 | 125.0 | 16% | 63–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 147.5 | 76% | 84–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 151.1 | 58% | 66–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.0 | 143.7 | 34% | 82–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.7 | 142.8 | 30% | 72–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.9 | 158.5 | 46% | 88–97 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 134.1 | 67% | 64–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.