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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–15 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
47 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.5 | 138.2 | 77% | 95–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 151.5 | 76% | 72–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 130.1 | 58% | 68–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 127.2 | 72% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 140.3 | 72% | 79–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.8 | 158.3 | 90% | 75–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 142.5 | 68% | 52–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 134.9 | 68% | 70–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 143.7 | 67% | 59–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 144.7 | 74% | 66–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 141.3 | 84% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 132.9 | 45% | 70–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.7 | 136.3 | 88% | 64–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 131.4 | 67% | 76–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.8 | 127.8 | 85% | 56–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 153.7 | 76% | 89–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 150.5 | 61% | 72–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.1 | 129.8 | 59% | 57–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 125.8 | 60% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 136.2 | 72% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.1 | 133.0 | 45% | 71–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 134.3 | 55% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 141.3 | 76% | 83–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 146.2 | 51% | 85–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.5 | 140.9 | 86% | 87–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 143.0 | 70% | 75–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 142.9 | 76% | 73–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 136.2 | 70% | 63–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.8 | 137.8 | 87% | 68–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 139.6 | 77% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 141.9 | 85% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 148.2 | 45% | 77–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 127.1 | 55% | 77–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.1 | 142.7 | 78% | 55–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 127.2 | 41% | 71–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 147.0 | 72% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 126.8 | 67% | 60–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 130.9 | 39% | 56–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 130.6 | 66% | 83–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 142.3 | 68% | 89–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 135.3 | 76% | 56–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.7 | 137.6 | 30% | 77–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 153.5 | 37% | 79–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 137.0 | 74% | 62–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 143.7 | 60% | 0–1 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 145.0 | 67% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 132.1 | 54% | 50–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.