Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -175 DUKE +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 1 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -3.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-154.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.0 (-2.0) | 153.1 (-152.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -2.0 (-1.0) | 143.7 (-142.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -2.1 (-1.1) | 150.6 (-149.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -2.7 (-1.7) | 151.3 (-150.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DUKE 80 – 79 FSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DUKE 91 – 87 FSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 65 FSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DUKE 86 – 67 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#17) | 10.9 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#25) | 1.41 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#24) | 2.11 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#41) | 0.543 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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