Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -400 UNM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -7.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.7 (+38.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -6.3 (+1.7) | 128.9 (+33.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -5.4 (+2.6) | 127.2 (+34.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -6.3 (+1.7) | 128.8 (+33.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -6.1 (+1.9) | 128.9 (+33.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-15 |
| Home | 7-5 | 1-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#215) | -10.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#152) | -1.35 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#165) | -1.61 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#170) | 0.428 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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