Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | MD -110 MSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +11 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MD -3.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.5 (+8.5) | 131.4 (-6.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -2.1 (+8.9) | 129.8 (-4.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -2.6 (+8.4) | 131.9 (-6.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -2.7 (+8.3) | 130.6 (-5.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#35) | 8.1 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#47) | 2.12 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#34) | 2.85 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#65) | 0.538 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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