Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GT -450 MIA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | GT -9.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -9.2 (-5.2) | 139.9 (-3.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -7.7 (-3.7) | 139.6 (-3.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -8.8 (-4.8) | 139.9 (-3.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -8.5 (-4.5) | 139.6 (-3.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MIA 91 – 81 GT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GT 89 – 74 MIA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GT 80 – 76 MIA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | GT 76 – 70 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2022 | MIA 79 – 70 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 4-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-5 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#38) | 1.3 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#50) | 0.42 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#43) | 0.49 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#66) | 0.479 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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