Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -225 SYR +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -3.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -2.7 (+0.3) | 132.2 (+8.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.8 (+1.2) | 125.8 (+15.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.1 (+0.9) | 128.1 (+12.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -2.3 (+0.7) | 131.6 (+9.4) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UVA 72 – 59 SYR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SYR 84 – 70 UVA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UVA 84 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 31, 2023 | UVA 67 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UVA 73 – 66 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#21) | 11.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#21) | 1.85 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#15) | 2.32 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#25) | 0.579 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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