Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -333 VAN +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -8.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -7.5 (-1.5) | 139.7 (-7.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -5.6 (+0.4) | 136.2 (-4.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -6.8 (-0.8) | 138.3 (-6.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.5 (-0.5) | 138.5 (-6.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#30) | 4.7 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#46) | 0.20 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#41) | 0.78 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#45) | 0.467 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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