North Carolina
Tar Heels
101
–
59
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
New York Life ACC
Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -250 ND +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +42 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -4.7 (+37.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.0 (+36.0) | 148.1 (+11.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.5 (+37.5) | 143.7 (+16.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -5.6 (+36.4) | 147.3 (+12.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.1 (+35.9) | 148.8 (+11.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#31) | 7.5 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#42) | 0.97 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#38) | 1.44 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#44) | 0.527 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 14.2% |
Game Analysis
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