Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -300 BALL +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +2 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -9.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.4 (-6.4) | 155.5 (+24.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -7.1 (-5.1) | 153.7 (+26.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -8.1 (-6.1) | 155.2 (+24.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.0 (-6.0) | 154.5 (+25.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#61) | -0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#87) | -0.41 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#80) | -0.28 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#49) | 0.477 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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