Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UK -150 MSST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -2.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -1.9 (-2.9) | 134.2 (+12.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -0.8 (-1.8) | 134.3 (+12.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.6 (-2.6) | 135.2 (+11.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -2.1 (-3.1) | 134.5 (+12.5) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UK 92 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UK 95 – 90 MSST |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UK 91 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MSST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | UK 71 – 68 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#53) | 8.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#89) | 1.01 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#71) | 1.51 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#110) | 0.522 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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