Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -400 M-OH +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +11 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -8.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -6.4 (+4.6) | 149.6 (-12.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -6.0 (+5.0) | 147.0 (-10.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.0 (+5.0) | 151.4 (-14.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -5.6 (+5.4) | 151.3 (-14.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | M-OH 73 – 71 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | M-OH 86 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 9-8 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#62) | -0.1 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#124) | -0.30 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#104) | -0.26 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#129) | 0.484 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 44.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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