Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -275 DEP +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -6.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -6.3 (-14.3) | 134.6 (-2.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -4.3 (-12.3) | 134.9 (-2.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -6.5 (-14.5) | 136.4 (-4.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.1 (-14.1) | 134.4 (-2.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 5-14 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 2-13 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#73) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#65) | -0.15 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#61) | 0.13 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#104) | 0.426 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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