UC Davis
Aggies
58
–
56
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Big West Conference
Cal State Bakersfield
Roadrunners
Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UCD +175 CSUB -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +2 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -5.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -4.4 (+6.4) | 136.0 (-22.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -4.8 (+6.8) | 130.9 (-16.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -4.8 (+6.8) | 135.0 (-21.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -4.7 (+6.7) | 135.1 (-21.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 15-11 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 4-3 | 9-2 |
| Away | 4-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#249) | 0.7 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#204) | 0.30 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#214) | 0.50 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#188) | 0.508 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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