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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–9 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
42 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina
@
UCF
|
+2.6 | 134.1 | 64% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Rice
@
UAB
|
+5.4 | 138.4 | 75% | 60–73 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Missouri
|
+3.4 | 150.8 | 61% | 70–73 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Akron
|
+1.0 | 152.7 | 52% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
California Baptist
|
-0.3 | 146.2 | 45% | 83–66 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Marist
|
-0.8 | 127.9 | 42% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Eastern Washington
|
+12.2 | 145.0 | 85% | 60–66 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Irvine
|
+13.3 | 131.0 | 87% | 51–58 | ✓ |
Utah
@
USC
|
+6.3 | 135.0 | 72% | 85–91 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Virginia Tech
|
-2.4 | 137.8 | 37% | 81–73 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
UConn
|
+9.6 | 134.9 | 81% | 60–94 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Wisconsin
|
+0.8 | 133.9 | 54% | 74–75 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Sam Houston
|
+6.8 | 138.7 | 75% | 70–69 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Utah State
|
+8.6 | 131.6 | 79% | 53–74 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Norfolk State
|
+5.8 | 136.4 | 71% | 58–87 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Texas
|
-0.5 | 133.4 | 45% | 66–67 | ✗ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+3.9 | 136.0 | 70% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Grambling
|
-1.5 | 139.8 | 42% | 67–72 | ✗ |
South Carolina
@
Ole Miss
|
+5.7 | 135.4 | 72% | 59–76 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Old Dominion
|
-4.4 | 124.4 | 34% | 61–55 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
New Mexico State
|
+6.2 | 129.2 | 74% | 61–77 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Weber State
|
+5.4 | 138.9 | 75% | 80–75 | ✗ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Riverside
|
+4.4 | 134.1 | 67% | 52–62 | ✓ |
California
@
Colorado
|
+11.8 | 126.7 | 85% | 58–61 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
+8.3 | 132.6 | 79% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Michigan
|
+4.3 | 128.1 | 68% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Alabama
|
+6.0 | 140.0 | 75% | 48–85 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Wichita State
|
+6.8 | 137.4 | 75% | 67–68 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Western Kentucky
|
+0.1 | 134.1 | 51% | 60–64 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Purdue
|
-0.1 | 132.8 | 47% | 87–78 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Tennessee
|
+1.7 | 130.8 | 61% | 66–78 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
SMU
|
+4.7 | 141.2 | 66% | 74–71 | ✗ |
|
North Texas
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-0.1 | 128.0 | 54% | 54–48 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Jackson State
|
-1.8 | 134.1 | 37% | 84–81 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Toledo
|
+2.2 | 153.8 | 56% | 87–80 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Niagara
|
-4.2 | 131.3 | 32% | 70–64 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Seton Hall
|
+1.4 | 138.2 | 53% | 66–58 | ✗ |
Morgan State
@
Coppin State
|
-4.7 | 153.6 | 30% | 82–61 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+6.9 | 153.4 | 76% | 76–88 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Illinois
|
+6.6 | 139.0 | 72% | 68–90 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Baylor
|
+7.7 | 149.5 | 78% | 83–74 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
Virginia
|
+1.7 | 112.0 | 57% | 1–0 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.