UC Riverside
Highlanders
62
–
52
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Big West Conference
Hawai'i
Rainbow Warriors
Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -175 HAW +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +10 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -7.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -6.0 (+4.0) | 138.0 (-24.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -4.4 (+5.6) | 134.1 (-20.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -6.1 (+3.9) | 136.6 (-22.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.8 (+4.2) | 137.4 (-23.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HAW 93 – 74 UCR |
| Jan 2, 2026 | HAW 88 – 45 UCR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCR 82 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 10, 2025 | HAW 83 – 76 UCR |
| Mar 3, 2024 | HAW 76 – 73 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 11-10 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#103) | -2.5 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#135) | -0.28 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#121) | -0.62 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#162) | 0.478 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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