Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -400 MD +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -7.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -6.1 (+6.9) | 131.6 (+13.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -4.3 (+8.7) | 128.1 (+16.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -5.4 (+7.6) | 131.9 (+13.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -6.1 (+6.9) | 130.3 (+14.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | MICH 101 – 83 MD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 81 – 80 MD |
| Mar 5, 2025 | MD 71 – 65 MICH |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MD 64 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MD 64 – 58 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#5) | 11.9 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#3) | 2.06 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#3) | 2.83 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#3) | 0.562 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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