Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GRAM +125 SOU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -1.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -1.2 (+6.2) | 138.4 (+0.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -1.5 (+6.5) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -1.7 (+6.7) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -1.7 (+6.7) | 139.9 (-0.9) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-4 | 5-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#316) | -8.8 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#282) | -1.74 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#305) | -2.64 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#234) | 0.475 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.