Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USU -600 UNLV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +21 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | USU -11.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -9.5 (+11.5) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -8.6 (+12.4) | 131.6 (-4.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -8.7 (+12.3) | 134.2 (-7.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -9.0 (+12.0) | 134.6 (-7.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#43) | -0.7 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#60) | -0.01 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#66) | -0.17 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#43) | 0.496 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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