Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | MRST +110 NIA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +5 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -0.7 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.1 (-5.1) | 130.2 (-1.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.8 (-4.2) | 127.9 (+1.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -1.2 (-3.8) | 130.3 (-1.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.2 (-4.8) | 128.6 (+0.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-9 | 9-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#242) | -3.8 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | -0.59 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#205) | -0.69 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#156) | 0.483 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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