Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -300 MSST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +37 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -8.8 (+28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -7.4 (+29.6) | 139.9 (-6.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -6.0 (+31.0) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.7 (+30.3) | 141.7 (-8.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.2 (+29.8) | 138.9 (-5.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#7) | 8.1 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#15) | 1.10 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#14) | 1.55 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#6) | 0.527 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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