Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -400 FRES +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -12.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -10.0 (+0.0) | 135.2 (-1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -8.3 (+1.7) | 132.6 (+1.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -9.2 (+0.8) | 132.9 (+1.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -9.2 (+0.8) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#59) | -2.8 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#41) | 0.31 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#57) | 0.25 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#35) | 0.503 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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