Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -800 RGV +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +16 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -7.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -6.2 (+9.8) | 129.2 (+8.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -6.6 (+9.4) | 128.7 (+9.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -6.1 (+9.9) | 129.7 (+8.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -7.6 (+8.4) | 130.0 (+8.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2022 | NMSU 85 – 73 RGV |
| Mar 2, 2021 | NMSU 69 – 51 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 9-10 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 2-5 |
| Home | 3-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#164) | -7.2 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#254) | -1.87 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#235) | -2.18 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#224) | 0.426 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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