Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU -400 RGV +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +18 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -2.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NMSU -2.4 (+15.6) | 133.3 (-13.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -1.5 (+16.5) | 134.4 (-14.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.0 (+16.0) | 135.8 (-15.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -2.8 (+15.2) | 136.9 (-16.9) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2022 | NMSU 85 – 73 RGV |
| Mar 12, 2021 | NMSU 77 – 61 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-8 | 9-10 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 2-5 |
| Home | 3-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#194) | -4.1 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#299) | -1.06 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#271) | -1.17 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#292) | 0.472 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 33.4% |
Game Analysis
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