Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -125 OHIO +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +7 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -3.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -2.8 (-9.8) | 157.0 (+10.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -2.2 (-9.2) | 153.8 (+13.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.5 (-9.5) | 156.8 (+10.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.2 (-9.2) | 156.9 (+10.1) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 17-8 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#62) | 5.6 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#88) | 0.57 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#82) | 0.60 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#49) | 0.526 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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