Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VT +170 UNC -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -2.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.1 (-5.9) | 141.8 (+12.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.4 (-5.6) | 137.8 (+16.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.1 (-5.9) | 139.4 (+14.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.5 (-5.5) | 141.8 (+12.2) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNC 89 – 82 VT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNC 91 – 59 VT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UNC 96 – 81 VT |
| Dec 4, 2022 | VT 80 – 72 UNC |
| Mar 12, 2022 | VT 72 – 59 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#41) | 13.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#37) | 2.05 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#44) | 2.73 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#37) | 0.580 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 15.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 41.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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