Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -110 BGSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -1.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -0.1 (+7.1) | 153.1 (-12.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -1.0 (+6.0) | 152.7 (-11.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -0.2 (+6.8) | 155.7 (-14.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -0.0 (+7.0) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | AKR 77 – 67 BGSU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | AKR 96 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | AKR 71 – 68 BGSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AKR 83 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | AKR 74 – 70 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 14-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-1 | 4-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#111) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#130) | 0.11 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#131) | 0.12 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#101) | 0.501 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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