Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -138 GT +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +1 | 1 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -3.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-131.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.9 (-2.9) | 130.1 (-129.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.7 (-2.7) | 112.0 (-111.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.5 (-2.5) | 112.9 (-111.9) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.7 (-2.7) | 121.3 (-120.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UVA 94 – 68 GT |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GT 66 – 60 UVA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UVA 75 – 61 GT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UVA 72 – 57 GT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UVA 75 – 66 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 11-6 |
| Home | 10-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#22) | 10.8 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#18) | 1.94 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#15) | 2.62 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#25) | 0.558 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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