Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -800 DEP +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +34 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.3 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -10.1 (+23.9) | 137.8 (+16.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -9.6 (+24.4) | 134.9 (+19.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -10.0 (+24.0) | 136.6 (+17.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.2 (+24.8) | 139.2 (+14.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 5-14 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 2-13 |
| Home | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#28) | 2.0 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#28) | 0.16 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#25) | 0.48 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#34) | 0.437 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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