Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -4000 KSU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -24.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -17.2 (-11.2) | 140.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -15.8 (-9.8) | 137.8 (+4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -18.2 (-12.2) | 139.6 (+2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -18.0 (-12.0) | 139.0 (+3.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-0 | 6-12 |
| Away | 7-1 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 61.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 22.6 (#2) | -1.6 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.82 (#2) | 0.34 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.79 (#2) | 0.34 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#2) | 0.476 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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