Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -300 CAL +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +18 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -7.7 (-25.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -7.5 (-25.5) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -4.8 (-22.8) | 131.4 (+2.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.3 (-24.3) | 134.1 (-0.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -6.6 (-24.6) | 133.3 (+0.7) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 5-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#80) | -0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#73) | -0.31 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#74) | -0.07 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#75) | 0.452 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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