Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -275 GTWN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -8.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -7.3 (-8.3) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -5.9 (-6.9) | 136.2 (+6.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -7.0 (-8.0) | 136.8 (+6.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -6.9 (-7.9) | 137.2 (+5.8) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-0 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-4 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#13) | 6.7 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#16) | 1.32 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#17) | 1.74 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#13) | 0.531 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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